The Economy is Booming
In March, contrary to expectations, 303,000 jobs were added to the economy.
In March, contrary to expectations, 303,000 jobs were added to the economy. And as you can tell from the chart that is far lower than the highs in 2021 and 2022, and unseen 2020. However, 303,000 annualized is 3,636,000, or over half of all unemployed people today.
That makes that number incredibly significant.
Significant because it raises the question about whether or not the Fed should start lowering rates.
Market have been pushing and pricing in lower rates for the last 6 months, partly because of the messaging from the Fed.
However this year so far, Treasury yields have picked back up from their December 2023 lows.
The stock market loves this. Higher rates tend to mean the economy is booming, low unemployment and more hiring means a booming economy, and of course the Fed being stuck increases predictability.
Needless to say, a booming and more predictable economy is great for the market.
Also, the correlation between stock and bond prices is moving back in the right direction because of this.
There is a lot to be optimistic and curious about in markets today.
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